The white goods market performed well in the first quarter of this year. According to the total data of the market research organization Zhongkang, the retail sales of refrigerators increased by 17.1% year-on-year and retail sales increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018; the retail sales of washing machines increased by 15.0% year-on-year and retail sales increased by 7.4% year-on-year; air-conditioning retail sales The year-on-year growth was 17.3%, and the retail sales increased by 22.7%; the freezer retail sales increased by 18.5%, and the retail sales increased by 12.4%. Judging from the year-on-year growth, the increase in volume and volume is relatively impressive.
Zhongyi Kang predicts that the growth momentum of the white electricity market will continue in the second quarter, but it will not last long, and the performance in the second half of 2018 will not be as good as the first half. Many relevant industry insiders have expressed similar concerns, saying that some potential unfavorable factors will become the "Sword of Damocles" hanging above the home appliance companies, which will adversely affect the trend of the white goods market in the second half of the year.
Due to the double influence of both inside and outside, price increases become the normAccording to the total data of Zhongyi Kang, the prices of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other categories rose significantly in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 7.1%, and 4.6%, respectively. At the same time, kitchen appliances, living Many categories of products, such as small household appliances, all exhibit price increases to varying degrees.
Price is always one of the most important factors influencing the sales of home appliances. Increasing product prices will inevitably test consumers ’purchase intentions and form a huge uncertainty for future product sales. Under the influence of both internal and external factors in the home appliance industry, The price increase of various categories of home appliances will continue, and the future may become the norm.
From the external point of view, cost pressure is the direct cause of the rise in home appliance prices. Copper, plastics and other materials are important raw materials for home appliances, accounting for nearly 90% of the cost structure of home appliance companies. In the past two years, affected by the supply-side structural reforms and environmental protection supervision and other related policies, copper, aluminum, plastics and other raw materials have experienced price increases. In 2017, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Among them, the copper index rose by 30.9%; plastics After the price increase in 2016, a new round of price increase cycle began in 2018. At the same time that the cost of raw materials is rising rapidly, labor costs, logistics costs, and storage costs are also increasing rapidly. This is worse for the home appliance industry where the profits are already very thin. It is not difficult to understand the product price increase.
From an internal perspective, the development of the home appliance market such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners has entered a mature period, and the brand pattern shows an obvious "Matthew effect", which provides room for profit improvement for advantageous brands. Major home appliance companies continue to increase product R & D efforts and launch many innovative products, but due to increased investment in costs, R & D, and marketing expenses, product prices will inevitably rise. Industry insiders predict that with the trend of consumption transformation and upgrading, In the future, home appliance product prices will remain at a high level.
The weather wins, and the air-conditioning inventory meets high pressure againAt present, the air-conditioning industry is re-entering high inventory pressure. Data show that in March 2018, the total inventory of factories and channels in the air-conditioning industry reached 39.1 million units. Some people in the industry believe that due to the characteristics of the industry, the air conditioner industry is in a high inventory peak in March and April. It is also a common phenomenon. Whether the current inventory will exert pressure on the industry depends on the sales of the air conditioner industry from May to August. For example, in February 2016, the inventory of air conditioners was as high as 42 million units, but due to the good sales in the peak season of the year, the direct sales were sold out, and the inventory pressure was fully released. And a reporter survey found that the retail scale of air conditioners in 2014 was 42.15 million units, and the retail scale of air conditioners in 2017 was 57.88 million units, an industry expansion of 37% in four years. According to the analysis of the above-mentioned industry insiders, the same inventory will have less time to digest in the air-conditioning industry in 2018.
However, due to the greater influence of weather factors on air-conditioning products, future market conditions are also quite variable. If the weather is hot, it is easy to promote the release of inventory in the peak season. If the weather is cooler, inventory pressure will remain tight. In addition, what the industry is more worried about is whether when the inventory is too inflated and the supply exceeds demand, will the leading companies break out the product price war as in 2014. In the current situation where the prices of bulk raw materials are rising and companies have no room for downward prices, the outbreak of price wars will undoubtedly cause a serious blow to small and medium-sized enterprises, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Therefore, "investigating the production and marketing situation and rationally allocating inventory" is a problem that major air-conditioning companies need to consider before the summer.
The trade friction remains variable, the real estate ebb tide has a greater impactIn addition to the unfavorable factors of the home appliance industry itself, the external environment may also affect the performance of the white goods market in the second half of the year. Recently, the question of whether "China-US trade friction will affect the healthy development of China's home appliance industry" has been the focus of industry discussions, because some of the electrical products and accessories are involved in the list of Chinese goods to be levied by the United States. In this regard, the China Household Electrical Appliances Association assessed that the current list involves fewer home appliances, and the amount of Chinese home appliances exported to the United States, which is restricted by the list, accounts for less than 5% of total home appliance exports. Industry impact is not great. In this regard, Jiang Feng, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, also said in an interview with the media: "At present, China's domestic home appliance market is developing well, and consumption upgrades have driven the steady development of the industry. The export volume of home appliance products accounts for less than 30% of total sales. It has formed a pattern that is dominated by domestic sales and supplemented by foreign sales, and has the ability to withstand the impact of trade friction. "However, industry insiders hold a wait-and-see attitude to the current development trend of the event, and it does not rule out that the possible upgrade of trade friction in the later period will cause the home appliance industry. Negative impact.
Relative to the uncertainty of the impact of trade friction, the adverse impact of changes in real estate trends on the home appliance industry has gradually emerged. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2018, China's commercial housing sales area increased by 3.6%, while the cumulative growth of commercial housing sales area was 19.5% in the same period last year. It can be seen that the real estate boom is fading. The rise and fall of the real estate industry are often the weather vane that affects the sales of home appliances. A large number of home appliances have a certain positive correlation with real estate, such as air conditioners, kitchen appliances, refrigerators, and washing machines. When the real estate industry enters a recession period, the home appliance industry will also be affected by the short-term and large negative effects of changes in the real estate market.
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