The original text is an article by Beau Cronin. In 2015, a variety of consumer virtual reality (VR) device prototypes emerged in an endless stream. In view of this, Beau believes that this is very similar to the Internet in 1994, and its application is in the moment of jumping from the academic Yangchun Snow to the public. The article analyzes the reasons for this kind of turnaround in VR, and also analyzes the current situation of VR from human, system, standard, application and other aspects and the problems that need to be solved to realize the popularization of the consumer market. It is a good summary of VR.
Like the Internet of 1994, virtual reality is now crossing the chasm and spreading from the niche to the masses.
Timing is important for entrepreneurs and investors vying to bring new technologies to market. Pushing the market too early will make people feel that this is obviously a mistake. But from another point of view, many of today's most sought-after technology companies actually do things that have been tried repeatedly by predecessors. Those people are very smart, but they are not at the right time.
The same is true for virtual reality. The ultimate vision of this technology is clear, but given its dreams surpassing the reality of cost-effectiveness, many technical experts and companies have failed in their long 50-year history.
Frankly, VR has made great progress, although most of it has been achieved in professional fields that are little known to withstand high costs, such as military training, resource exploration, and so on. But the basic requirements for entering a large-scale market—low-power computing, fast-reality, miniature, and accurate sensors—have never been met. Thanks to the smartphone's supply chain, all of these components have evolved rapidly in recent years, and now low-cost, high-quality compact VR systems have become possible. Consumer VR is coming soon, things are starting to get very interesting.
It is tempting to observe a revolutionary general-purpose technology that jumps from ivory towers and industry applications to the wider market. This situation is often unexpected, but history can provide clues for the future. If we compare the evolution of VR with the Internet, we can see that the moment we are in is very close to the Internet in 1994. At that time, the Internet and related technologies have been in the field of research for several years. But while the academic community shares these technological foundations, this academic network is no different from the consumer web in the late 1990s.
I had the first online experience since 1993. At that time, the Internet could be called Web 0.1. Netscape was not born yet, and there was no indication that graphical browsers and hypertext would become web overwhelming FTP or Gopher. The key to such agreements. The Internet on the eve of this boom reflects a different level of awareness and priority than the successor. It can be recalled how much the technological trend has changed when the public started surfing the Internet. The logic of development has gradually but resolutely shifted from meeting academic and engineering needs to meeting the needs of marketers, designers and consumers. Many of the key design choices before the advent of the consumer Internet were very good, but some were not as adaptable to this new pressure. Some design errors have been shelved with the emergence of better solutions (based on the page layout of the table to give way to CSS), and some of us are still struggling.
VR is at this exciting and fleeting moment, and the times seem to be ready, but every important issue related to the morphological nature of VR adoption and the impact of socioeconomics remains unanswered.
Like the Internet in 1994, VR is preparing to cross the gap from niche to mass. According to Philip Rosedale of High Fidelity, 1 million people may have tried VR so far, but in a few years this number may exceed 1 billion. Just like the Internet, the social dynamics of this technology are very different at this scale. This is a comparison of a small web development team with modern tools and platforms and productivity levels 20 years ago. It's not just because the current stuff is much cheaper, but also because thousands of seemingly boring or crazy ideas can now be tried with minimal risk. Of course, sometimes you get ChatRoulette, but sometimes you get Snapchat.
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