7 trillion US dollars, what is the concept?
The amount of 7 trillion US dollars far exceeds the total expected value of GDP for Japan and Brazil in 2017. Compared to the 7 million billion cases that we were keen to talk about earlier, those examples were just drizzle.
Then, will the company get a "return" of 7 trillion US dollars, or what is the new market with a market capacity of 7 trillion yuan in the future?
Everything stems from a new concept recently proposed by Intel - the passenger economy.
Intel released a report predicting that in the process of self-driving cars gradually taking root, there will be a new model called “Passenger Economy†in the traditional consumer market.
The "passenger economy" is used to represent the value of products and services that are generated by fully automatic driverless cars. With the application and popularization of automatic driving, consumers will be completely separated from the one-on-one relationship with the car, and the resources will be shifted out of the purchase of cars, and will be selected from the travel-as-a-service provider, which will lead to emerging business models. . Intel stated that by 2035, the market economy generated by the passenger economy may be only about $800 billion. The period of really rapid growth is from 2035 to 2050. Due to climate change and other reasons, new vehicles such as floating cars may emerge during this period. By 2050, the overall passenger economy is expected to generate a $7 trillion valuation.
In the process of self-driving being accepted and developed, some people believe that 7 trillion US dollars are insufficient to describe the size of the passenger economy. Greg Lindsay, co-author of the best-selling book, “Aviation Metropolis: Our Future Lifestyle,†said: “The $7 trillion forecast may be a bit conservative because the self-driving car may be traffic since the appearance of the Ford Model T. The biggest change occurred in the transport industry.†Intel also explained this figure: “It refers to the research of other similar scale markets (such as the application of 5G mobile communication technology, etc.), and many of the conclusions reached will also have certain similarities. In general, the error of each forecast is within an acceptable range."
The core element of the passenger economy lies in the “change of service†that is derived from automatic driving.
Intel said in the report that it is expected that travel services will be expected to generate market value of 3.7 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 55% of the entire passenger economic market. At the same time, in the era of passenger economy from 2035 to 2045, driverless cars will save 585,000 lives. In the world's most congested cities, driverless cars are expected to save 250 million hours of consumer commuting time each year. Between 2035 and 2045, public transport security spending could save 234 billion U.S. dollars.
The mainstreaming of self-driving cars means that the number of cars that can be accommodated in public roads in the future can be even more, because there is no need to worry about collisions in re-congested road conditions. And, there will be $200 billion in revenue from more and more consumers using innovative applications and services that will emerge with the expansion and evolution of driverless car services.
In the "passenger economy", it is not difficult to find that "autopilot" is a very important vocabulary, and the passenger economy at the core of the autopilot is also a new round of reshuffle in the industrial manufacturing industry under 4.0. In your circle, we will also find out about the driverless figure.
Autopilot technology can be divided into three levels, perception-cognition-action, and then continue to cycle. Among them, the action layer includes three controllers (and actuators) for steering, throttle, and braking; the sensory layer includes two aspects—a lidar that senses the environment, a millimeter-wave radar, a camera, and an integrated navigation device that senses the vehicle’s own wheels. The amount of feedback of the speedometer and the three controllers; and the cognitive part, including decision-making and planning, is where the artificial intelligence in the usual sense lies.
Siemens - Acquired MendoGraphics, the leader in electronic design automation (EDA) software, for $4.5 billion. Shortly after the acquisition, Mentor announced its entry into the automated driving market, and the first product to be launched was capable of achieving level 5 automatic driving. Solution - DRS360 platform. The DRS360 platform uses breakthrough technology that enables real-time capture, fusion, and utilization of raw data with a variety of sensing methods including radar, LIDAR, images, and other sensors. The DRS360 platform not only greatly improves the delay, but also significantly improves the sensing accuracy and overall system efficiency to meet the requirements of SAE 5 class self-driving vehicles.
GE, based on its own intelligent platform, released the enhanced video transmission XMC module ICS-8580. The ICS-8580 is designed for the fast-growing video processing needs of unmanned vehicles. These applications often require high-quality video with limited bandwidth. The product design concept is easy to use, plug and play, integration is minimized or minimal software development.
Bosch - When a large number of car companies and technology companies put forward the hope of realizing the highest level of L5 in "autopilot" from 2023 to 2025, Bosch will advance this timetable to 2022.
For this reason, Bosch has partnered with Daimler, Mercedes-Benz and other well-known car companies to promote the development of fully automated driving and driverless cars, and to jointly develop software and algorithms for autonomous driving systems. Consolidating existing technologies and providing solutions including hardware, introducing mature technologies overseas and speeding up drive tests as soon as possible, Bosch, the veteran automotive electronics company, is devoting itself to the field of “autopilotâ€.
From the point of view of your sector’s forces, the direct benefit of this “seven trillion†business opportunity lies in the automotive manufacturers.
In the future, self-driving cars, like the appearance of personal computers, the Internet, and smart phones, will have a profound impact on personal consumption. With everyone’s deep understanding of the future of social development, we are able to plan and adapt to more and more lifestyles and fields. For example, if you don't need to drive your own car, you won't spend a lot of money on buying a car; since cars don't belong to you, some offline auto repair shops can only serve large self-driving car rental agencies.
Under the illusion, if the service is the main driving force, the "passenger economy" will bring about a certain transformation to the auto makers.
Demand for transportation - Automakers become a travel-as-a-service provider: Automakers will replace car sales with the "travel-as-a-service" model. Over time, the services, applications, and content revenues generated by travel-as-a-service will replace the value of car sales, and consumers will be able to order trips to and from any location. Become the core source of shareholder value creation.
Transport network operations - Automakers may eventually compete for the right to operate specific cities and specific automotive networks, and they will become fleet operators.
Edge Industry Optimization - Consumers will be able to use the professional travel experience provided by service providers using retail expertise, which has led to the promotion of hotels, tourism, leisure and restaurant industries. Transportation as a convenience - apartments, homes and chain hotels will have dedicated autonomous vehicles as ancillary amenities.
Summary: With the passage of time and rising awareness, the rise of the passenger economy will gradually reconfigure the entire industry and create new industries. When self-driving cars influence consumers to decide how best to allocate time, energy, and money, we can expect similar changes, which means that more economic value remains to be tapped and greater economic benefits are yet to be released.
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