The arrival of 2009 is just beginning. In the current uncertain economic situation, the changes in the electronics industry have just begun. This article shares with you the predictions of the global semiconductor industry market.
Industry proponents have different perspectives on the overall outlook for the semiconductor industry and integrated circuit manufacturing equipment market in 2009 and beyond.
1. Downturn or recession?
I am very honored to see other forecasters' views on 2009. I think most of them are too optimistic. Unfortunately, what I can foresee is a 25% recession in the IC industry in 2009, which is only a little better than the 2001 Great Depression. However, it feels worse than in 2001.
As in 2008, storage will drag the industry down. Memory, including DRAM, NAND, and NOR, will face an alarming 40% recession in 2009, and the current capacity is still too large for this cycle of slowdowns. Some of the remaining markets, such as analog, communications, DSP, and logic chips, will be flat in 2009.
Some people think that the market will pick up in mid-2009, but I don't think so. I think the areas that can see growth are: aerospace/military, GPS, micro-laptops, but I don't think these so-called killer apps will take us out of the woods. In addition, it is certain that the subprime mortgage crisis, credit collapse, bank scandals, housing crisis, auto industry collapse, and other macroeconomic events will not end so soon. Unemployment and shrinking personal consumption will continue to make headlines in 2009.
2. Vertical drop in wafer fabrication equipment industry
Sitting in your seat and fastening your seat belt, the semiconductor equipment market will be even worse in 2009. My prediction is: at least 50% decline! I don't want to start this discussion, but the leading IDM company will definitely not expand their capacity in 2009, because the IC market will fall like a stone, and memory manufacturers will continue to cut capacity. The same is true for foundries. The sign of this problem is Intel and Samsung. Don't expect to see any factory capacity expansion in these two companies.
The front-end equipment market will be poor, but the back-end packaging and testing equipment will be even worse. Like foundries, equipment vendors such as ASE, Amkor, STATS and SPIL are also cutting capacity. I predict a 20% to 30% decline in the foundry business and the corresponding semiconductor packaging and testing market.
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