Recently, Zhou Mingjun, general manager of Jingyuan Optoelectronics, revealed that due to the strong demand for TV and backlight, the current supply and demand gap of blue LEDs exceeds 30%. Although the possibility of exceeding orders is not ruled out, the performance of Jingdian from April to May should be good. The industry's variables this year are the continued expansion of land-based plants such as Sanan Optoelectronics. It is estimated that capacity will be widened in August, and whether it is necessary to restart the pressure on LED prices remains to be seen.
From March to April, the TV backlight LED stocking period was entered. Since the global MOCVD was only 100 units last year, the wafer processing capacity of the front section of the crystal blue LED was tighter than that of the previous year. The crystal power has been partially expanded. Production plan.
According to the estimation of Jingdian this year, there are about 200 new machines in the world. Although it has doubled compared with last year, Jingdian believes that compared with 3,000 to 4,000 machines in the world, the capacity increase is extremely small, and the expansion also represents new. Demand.
According to the forecast, the annual growth rate of LED display will exceed 20% by 2020. Whether it is a small-pitch display, indoor or outdoor display, it will eat a lot of capacity, plus expansion and control, it is estimated that the first half of the blue light The wafer may be in a tight state.
As the current supply and demand gap has expanded to more than 30%, the price of blue LEDs has approached and stabilized. The company has a chip that can pick a single order and has appropriately reflected the price for a specific product.
Zhou Mingjun pointed out that the current inventory level is not high, the reason for the larger is still due to the improvement in demand. However, Zhou Mingjun also warned that the capacity of the mainland LED factory continued to open, Sanan, Huacan, Aoyang Shunchang synchronized production expansion, the current procurement equipment, is expected to undergo a 3 to 4 months yield adjustment period, August may gradually The release of new capacity, as the production time point has gradually entered the end of the peak season, then there may be pressure on the price of blue LED.
LED upstream chip companies are currently heading towards oligopoly. From the perspective of the Chinese mainland market, by the end of 17th, Sanan Optoelectronics + Huacan Optoelectronics will have a 70% share of chips, with a roughly proportional ratio of Sanan 40% and Huacan 30. %, there is no new entrant in this market. The old small manufacturers will be completely eliminated due to cost reasons. In the future, this market is played by several big factories. According to the scale, it is Sanan, Huacan, and Aoyang. Shunchang.
Zhou Mingjun is relatively optimistic about the application of quaternary LED, which means that the quaternary LED has patents and environmental protection issues (phosphorus and arsenic), and relatively suppresses the expansion of the manufacturer. The land-based factory mainly expands the red LED of the small-pitch display. In the low-end market, on the whole, quaternary LEDs are not easy to face overcapacity. The red LED, IR and VSCEL are all produced on a quaternary machine. The crystal power has the ability to modify the equipment to meet the market's take-off point.
At present, Jingdian's current four-element LED revenue share is 25-30%, and the vehicle plus IR LED accounts for 10-20%. Although the application continues to grow, the certification time in the high-end automotive market is lengthy, four yuan. Whether it breaks through 30% of the iron plate area depends on whether the car products continue to rise.
Although the price of blue light continues to fall, the backlight and lighting are still in demand. Crystal power cannot be abandoned. In the medium and long term, crystal power will disperse production capacity and transfer to non-LED applications, including VCSEL, CSP applications, etc., CSP In the past, it was mainly used in backlights and mobile phone flashlights. Recently, TVs have also been adopted. Under the adoption of Korean and mainland manufacturers, Jingdian will expand its CSP capacity according to market conditions.
The concentration of the industry is showing an increasing trend. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon: First, the continuous growth of downstream demand, especially the explosive growth of the consumer goods industry such as lighting; the second is the adjustment of the industry itself. In the past two or three years, there has been almost no expansion. Earlier, many industry insiders said that this form of tight supply will continue into the third quarter of this year.
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