Due to the stable growth of PCs and a range of new embedded system application chips, market research firm IDC predicts that global semiconductor market revenue will reach an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% over the next five years, reaching $344 billion in 2014. Scale; however, the agency also believes that the industry growth rate will slow down in the second half of 2010.
IDC semiconductor industry analyst Mali Venkatesan pointed out that the global economic climate that has recovered since the second half of 2009 is currently facing the risk of slowing down growth, mainly because of the euro crisis in the macroeconomic system, the rising unemployment rate in the US, and insufficient consumer confidence. And concerns about the bubble bubble in the BRIC countries.
In this scenario, industry growth, which was expected to occur in the second half of 2010, may be postponed until early 2011; Venkatesan said: However, we still believe that applications including smart phones, mobile PCs, multimedia tablet devices and automobiles It will show strong growth in both 2010 and 2011.
Global semiconductor industry revenues declined by 9% in 2009, and IDC noted that industrial orders have now stabilized after experiencing explosive growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. The agency expects that market demand will stabilize and meet seasonal changes in the second half of 2010. Further demand is needed to maintain the current economic cycle.
IDC recently increased its forecast for the 2010 chip industry sales growth rate to 33%; PC chips are expected to grow by 35%, which is the best performer in all application markets. The agency also believes that the PC chip market will continue to expand at an average annual growth rate of 12.2% in the next five years to 2014, with the main driving force being PC sales.
As for the industrial, military, aerospace and automotive semiconductor markets, it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 13.2% by 2014; IDC pointed out that the main driving force in this application field comes from emerging markets such as alternative energy and LED lighting. And the trend of using more and more semiconductor components inside the car. In addition, the embedded application chip market is expected to grow by 20% this year.
However, IDC said that this year's wireless and consumer application chip revenue performance may not be very good; the former due to price pressures and mobile phone memory growth slowdown, revenue growth rate will show a single digit in the next five years. The latter's sales growth rate is forecast at 5.8% this year, and the growth rate of portable multimedia playback devices will slow down until 2014.
Memory chips are expected to show sales growth of more than 52% in 2010, reaching US$66.7 billion; however, IDC believes that after the manufacturers increase capacity to meet demand, the market revenue will be flat or weak in 2011 and 2012. A decline. It is understood that the memory market has been out of stock since the end of April.
Regionally, the contribution of the Asia Pacific market to global semiconductor industry revenues continues to rise; IDC estimates that by 2014, this ratio will exceed 45%.
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