On June 10, 2018, the "2018 (16th) High-tech LED Industry Summit Forum" held by Gaogong LED was held in the Westin of the Canton Fair. The forum was divided into three special forums. Among them, Ma Ziqi, senior analyst of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech on the "2018 LED Industry Trend Report" in the afternoon.
Ma Ziqi expects that the LED industry will maintain a growth rate of 20% in 2018. The overall scale will reach 760 billion, including 640 billion downstream, 100 billion in the middle package, and 21.5 billion upstream chips. The industry as a whole maintains a high growth trend.
Regarding the upstream chip, in terms of output value, the growth rate reached the highest point in 2017, an increase of nearly 30%. Because the price of chips is falling, it is expected that the growth rate of LED chip industry will be 14% in 2018. With the increase of MiniLED and MicroLED, the growth rate of chip market will pick up in 2020. In 2018, the number of MOCVD is expected to increase by about 300 units. The fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year will continue to release production capacity. It is expected that the new capacity will reach 1.45 million/month in 2018 and the production capacity will increase by 3.45 million pieces per month in 2019. .
Regarding the packaging industry, the overall growth rate of the industry in 2018 is about 15%, and the scale reaches 100 billion. In the second half of the year, as the price of chips declines, the price of packaging will gradually decline. GGII judges that the price of packaged devices will drop rapidly. In terms of the concentration of production capacity, with the release of capacity of large packaging plants such as Zhaochi and Mulinsen, the market concentration will gradually increase. .
Ma Ziqi said that domestic packaging companies generally have two main strategies: scale and differentiation. The representatives of the scale are Mulinsen and Zhaochi. Mulinsen mainly adopts the method of shareholding and strategic cooperation for upstream chips, while Zhaochi is self-built. At the same time, Mulinsen and Zhaochi have their own lighting brands, and Mulinsen acquired overseas lighting brands in order to expand the seaport. The main aspects of differentiation are two directions: headlights and MicroLED, MiniLED.
Regarding downstream applications, the overall market size growth rate is around 21%, and some new applications have begun to be industrialized. Ma Ziqi said that if the downstream new application is divided into four stages, I think that MiniLED will enter the introduction period in 2018, and will be applied on a large scale in the second half of the year. Due to the immature technology, MicroLED needs a reserve period of two years to market. In the growth period; including automotive lights, smart lighting, small pitch, plant lighting and UV, IR, etc., but automotive lighting and smart lighting have the best growth, and the market space is huge in the future; general lighting is relatively mature The traditional backlight market is gradually shrinking.
"The future growth rate of the general lighting market will remain at around 15%, and foreign companies are gradually divesting the general lighting business. As China's global market share increases, it is estimated that China's lighting market will account for 60% of the global market by 2020. Above." Ma Ziqi said frankly.
In the automotive lighting market, the market size is about 30 billion, including interior lighting, exterior lighting, signal lights and motorcycle lighting. In the field of passenger car lighting, the penetration rate of headlights and fog lights is relatively fast, especially the headlights, which are far below the international level. The headlights account for nearly 45% of the total value of the car, but the penetration rate of domestic LED car headlights is only 2.5%. In the future, as domestic chips and packaging companies mature, the price will decline and the market share of xenon lamps will gradually erode. In 2020, the penetration rate of Chinese LED car headlights will reach 15%. Of course, headlights are far higher than traditional cars in new energy vehicles.
Intelligent lighting, large enterprises at home and abroad are in the layout. But smart lighting is part of the Internet of Things, or it must be combined with Internet technology companies to get a breakthrough.
The plant lighting market is relatively small in scale. At present, it is mainly export-oriented. It takes several years to get a large-scale application. The small-pitch growth is relatively fast, but the market size is not particularly large.
Other new markets, such as MiniLED, have lower cost as a backlight, and the huge LCD market can bring a lot of imagination to the MiniLED. As a display, the LCD is relatively expensive in small and medium size (below 55 inches), but the cost of 75 inches or more is not very high, which brings a huge opportunity for the MiniLED. Therefore, the backlight of the mobile phone is the leader of the MiniLED application. As the cost decreases, the MiniLED will gradually penetrate into the display and the medium-sized backlight.
The advantages of MicroLED are mainly low power consumption, short reaction time, low display cost and high reliability. With the application of MicroLED, it will bring opportunities for chip manufacturing companies, such as Sanan, Jingyuan and Huacan. The huge transfer will bring opportunities for some technology companies. "I think after two years of reserve, MicroLED will usher in an explosion in 2020." Ma Ziqi finally said.
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