The huge market for LEDs is destined to develop into a huge industry. Overall, the development of large-scale industries in China has been unsatisfactory. The typical case is the integrated circuit industry and the LCD panel industry. The domestic IC industry is still a tail-carrying person. The LCD panel industry is also riddled with diseases and complicated technology. The main reason for the large investment and weak foundation is that the LED industry will break this magic curse and can promote the improvement of related industries. For example, the domestic driver chip industry cannot do it on the LCD driver, because the LCD panel industry is not in the country, because there is a huge With market support, LED driver chips are expected to flourish in China, and promote domestic related companies to become bigger and stronger, which in turn will promote the development of domestic LCD driver chips or other driver chips.
LED development prospect analysis
The disadvantages of the current LED industry development in mainland China are:
1. There is still a certain gap between the technical level of domestic LED products and overseas, and they are at a disadvantage in striving for high-end customers;
Second, the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing base is weaker than the strong LED regions in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The LED epitaxy, chip manufacturing capability, process level and peripheral materials supporting ability are somewhat poor. The learning curve is longer and it takes a period of cultivation;
Third, the scale of domestic LED enterprises is still relatively small, most of which do not exceed 100kk/month capacity (blue-green), this situation will improve in the next two years;
4. Domestic R&D is concentrated in universities and research institutes, producing in various enterprises, lacking a rapid conversion mechanism for the industrialization of R&D results. In this respect, we should learn from the technical achievements authorization mechanism of the Taiwan Industrial Research Institute to speed up the transformation of technological achievements. It is impossible to industrialize itself without transferring the latest technological achievements to the industry in a timely manner. The government should formulate relevant policies and regulate relevant behaviors;
V. Lack of domestic core patents, especially in the absence of Blu-ray core patents and white light patents that are related to the long-term development of the industry, which will constrain the long-term development of domestic industries. At present, Chinese local enterprises are still in the initial stage. The scale of enterprises is small, and it is not a threat to the mastery of patents. The patent issue is not very prominent. However, with the development and growth of domestic enterprises, once the scale is expanded to a certain extent and the “going out†development strategy is implemented, the patent issue will become a hidden danger. At present, for domestic enterprises, it is the primary task to strengthen the product quality and technology level, improve the ability to obtain the price of the patent in the future, or gradually break through the core patent through research and development.
We believe that the LED industry has good prospects for development in China, based on the following points:
1. As far as technology is concerned, LED has a high bottleneck in technology growth and low learning threshold. The long-term research resources accumulated in the semiconductor field in China can be used, and it has a good research base. Although the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing base is relatively weak, The level of technology is relatively low, but some domestic enterprises have made breakthroughs in technology by hiring overseas technicians. The technical level of domestic good enterprises has not been the same as that of Taiwanese manufacturers. The overall gap with international manufacturers is also Keep zooming in;
Second, LED investment is relatively small, the initial investment of 100 million can be built, domestic enterprises have low barriers to entry, easy to achieve rolling development, which is related to integrated circuit manufacturing and LCD panel manufacturing billions to billions of yuan of investment The words appear to be “insignificantâ€, and domestic enterprises are easy to enter into industrial clusters. Of course, they may also cause vicious competition. Market development is required at a certain stage of development;
Third, the domestic market is huge. The main market for LED in the future is the general lighting market. The market capacity is large, and the terminal consumer market is relatively scattered. It is not easy to form a monopoly. The domestic enterprises have a vast living space;
4. Some domestic enterprises have core intellectual property rights, such as the silicon nitride GaN blue light project of Jingneng Optoelectronics, and the core technology of Dalian Lumei's chip field are all globally competitive. These enterprises are easy to form demonstration effects in technology development and promote The domestic enterprise market grows healthily;
5. After the technology is mature, LED downstream packaging and device production are labor-intensive, and the mainland has the advantage of developing labor costs.
From the development of the LED industry, the largest market for global LED sales is the mobile phone backlight market. With the slowdown in mobile phone sales growth and the penetration of mobile phone OLED screens into TFT-LCD screens, the growth rate of global LEDs has declined. The cost reduction caused by technological advancement is not enough (or even before 2010) to allow LEDs to fully enter the general general lighting market. The next growth point in the world will be in the backlight market of notebooks, LCD TVs, and backlights and rear lights of automotive interiors. The city is currently the world's top five LCD panel manufacturers (LG Philips, Samsung, AUO, Chi Mei and Sharp) are distributed in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea with high LED technology and high production capacity. Only Beijing East, Shanghai Optoelectronics and Longteng Optoelectronics are in China. The three five-generation panel lines, Shanghai Tianma's 4.5-generation line capacity will also have LED backlight demand, but the overall demand is not dominant, domestic companies will not enter the LCD panel LED backlight supply chain will not have a large gain, which is The mobile phone panel backlight market has similarities.
China's current application market is mainly in architectural lighting, indoor and outdoor display screens. For the above reasons, the next wave of the main force may still be in these markets, but the penetration of mobile phones, small-size LCD backlights, and automobiles will increase, and others will be scattered. Markets such as special lighting will also be more developed (special lighting costs are not as demanding as general lighting). After a few years of replacement, LED traffic lights have become very common. Due to the long service life of LEDs, it is difficult to have large-scale replacement work in the short term. This will cause the traffic light to have a low tide for LED demand. The domestic car market is huge, but the requirements are high, and the certification period is long. As long as there is excellent product quality, the LED market demand for domestic automotive backlights and lights is very large, and the demand growth in this market is relatively stable; With its advantages of easy assembly, low power consumption and high brightness, it has been widely used in banks, securities, massaging stations, stadiums, and there is still great growth potential in this market in the future; demonstrations in the Olympic Games, World Expo, and some urban nightscape projects Driven by the effects and many favorable factors such as the national semiconductor lighting project, the architectural lighting market is still promising.
In general, international manufacturers focus on some high-end, target-market “packaged†markets and the huge potential general lighting market, and let some markets with relatively low technical requirements and relatively weak future control. Because of its large number of patents, it is not worried about being squeezed out of the market in the future. At this stage, it is not very proficient in production capacity (Japanese-Japanese monthly production capacity of 500kk, Toyota Synthetic and Cree are 350kk and 300kk respectively), and is focused on leading the market technology trend. When the technology matures to the scale of entering the general lighting market, it is estimated that its production capacity will increase rapidly, while reducing the external patent authorization. This “central? periphery†competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time.
At present, the domestic manufacturers' market is mainly in the Mainland. If the chip export is likely to encounter two challenges:
1. The patent litigation of major international manufacturers (mainly Blu-ray and white light). In fact, as long as they are of a certain scale, they will encounter patent challenges regardless of whether they export or not, but the possibility of patent litigation is greater.
Second, the competition of other peripheral manufacturers, especially Taiwanese manufacturers, Taiwanese manufacturers follow their traditional strategy? Technology closely tracks international manufacturers, while vigorously increasing production capacity and reducing costs, Taiwan's chip production capacity is currently the world's first, there are some other industries Big Macs such as Hon Hai, Lianmao and Jia are entering this field one after another. In the future, Taiwan's production capacity will affect the global LED chip market price fluctuations. In view of the huge domestic market demand, domestic chip factories can obtain sufficient development even if they rely on the domestic market. If overseas optoelectronics manufacturers enter the domestic market without restrictions, domestic enterprises will face continuous competitive pressure, which is for domestic enterprises in the growth stage. The words are very unfavorable. At this stage, the LED industry is in the long-term, and it is also the domestic layout period of each LED manufacturer. Foreign investment enjoys preferential taxation in the domestic market. Domestic enterprises are in an unequal position in the competition. For foreign capital to enter the domestic market, it is encouraged to set up factories in China to engage in extension and chip. Such enterprises with core technologies can promote the cultivation of domestic talents and improve the overall technical level; they should limit those enterprises that are encapsulated in domestic, epitaxial, chip and other core technologies, which are specially designed to occupy the market abroad. Let such enterprises in the various core areas of the card position, local enterprises can not enjoy the benefits of technological progress, development space is limited, in the future, I am afraid to rely on price wars, and do not want to do things, so currently Restrictions should be imposed on foreign capital only in the packaged part, such as the import tariff on chips.
From the perspective of patent litigation, it is not terrible. As long as the main competitors have paid, everyone is still on the same competitive starting line. Taiwan’s LED chips factories that are involved in blue and white light have experienced LED litigation during their growth. A settlement was reached in the lawsuit, and the patent authorization was obtained, which continued to grow. The best response is to do large-scale at this stage, obtain patent authorization, and constantly strengthen its own research and development, and improve the bargaining power in patent litigation.
Future industry competition will depend on two aspects. First, technology, including technologies that improve luminous efficiency, reduce costs, and improve device power. There are extensions to existing technology routes in the direction, and new technology routes may emerge. Including process technology for obtaining high-quality products, as well as peripheral design such as lighting system design and driver chip design; second, scale, on the one hand, it can reduce costs due to large scale, and the market has strong bargaining power; on the other hand, compound epitaxial wafers and integrated circuits The silicon wafers used in manufacturing are very different in that the performance of the chips fabricated on the same epitaxial layer may be quite different. This is an application area where the consistency is relatively high (typically, such as a liquid crystal panel backlight). Only a part of the requirements meet the requirements, but for large-scale enterprises, it has a multi-level market structure, which can allocate chip products that do not meet the requirements of a certain market to another market, and the overall output efficiency of the company is fully improved.
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