Apple's dynamics are closely related to the fate of its industry chain company.
On December 26, some media sources stated that due to the worse-than-expected sales of the iPhone X, Apple Corp. lowered its sales forecast for the first quarter of next year, from the original order quarter to 50 million, which was more than expected. At the same time, Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant announced an emergency suspension of the recruitment of workers.
Affected by this news, Apple Concept stocks generally suffered a setback on December 25, with only two stocks rising in more than 40 stocks. Lansi Technology fell 8.44%, and the stock price also hit a new low in two months, closing at 28.43 yuan. An Jie Technology fell 9.47%, Desai battery, Jiangfen magnetic materials, crystal photoelectric and other stocks fell more than 5%, FENDA Technology fell 1.16%.
In an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, a Fen Tat Science and Technology source said that from the current situation, orders for 2018 had not been affected by Apple, and the situation in the future could not be predicted. Lansi Technology Executive Secretary Peng Mengwu also said that the company has never received news of Apple's order cuts. It is expected that the target will be between 30 million and 35 million, and there will be no so-called big orders.
The Morgan Stanley report believes that unlike the iPhone 6 cycle, the newly released iPhone 8 did not bring content growth to related companies. The latest signs indicate that Apple is cutting orders. At the same time, China's mobile phone brands OPPO and vivo are also cutting orders, but also greater. Relevant production may be cut by as much as 20%-25%, which will have a huge impact on downstream companies in the supply chain.
Halo fading
It is worth noting that since the end of November of the above-mentioned apple industry chain company, the stock price has been declining all the way. The release of the iPhone 8 did not bring the halo effect as always.
The Consumer Intelligence Research Partnership (CIRP) data shows that as of December 3, the new iPhone launched this year accounted for only 69% of US iPhone sales, 73% lower than last year and 71% the year before. iPhoneX is generally sold and retailers have inventory. In addition, plus the second quarter of next year, buyers will wait and see waiting for the new machine to release, Apple's sales will be further weakened, Apple's concept stocks will continue to be under pressure in the first half of next year, until the second half of the new machine will resume growth.
This time, news of orders cuts not only pressured A shares of Apple's supply chain listed companies. On December 25th, Lansi Technology Co., Ltd., which produces mobile phone glass lenses, fell 8.44%, while Desai Battery, which produces mobile phone batteries, fell 5.87%. Taiwan’s technology stocks have also been dragged down. Foxconn’s parent company, Hon Hai, fell 0.86%, while Yujing Optoelectronics and Dali Optoelectronics, which produce lenses, fell 9.2% and 4.76%, respectively.
When interviewed by a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, Sun Yanxi, the head of the First Mobile Phone Academy Research Institute, believed that although Apple has reduced the level of its suppliers, it mainly uses exclusive suppliers. However, their dependence on Apple only increased and did not decrease. “In the past, in order to ensure stable supply, Apple had three stores and there were multiple suppliers in the country. But now it is basically an exclusive supplier, and the order competition of the iPhone is even fiercer.â€
As the world's largest mobile phone brand, Apple's status quo is not alone. The industry believes that as the global demand for smart phones decreases, it is expected that the sales of Huawei, OPPO and vivo, the top three Chinese manufacturers, will also be weak in the first quarter of next year.
At present, due to the ceiling of the domestic market, domestic brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi and OPPO have all focused their attention on overseas markets. According to data previously released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, domestic smart phone shipments increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, down 3.9% year-on-year in the second quarter and 7.0% year-on-year in the third quarter. The cycle of replacement of Chinese consumers has been extended to 22 months, which is significantly lower than the global average.
However, in the high-end mobile phone market, Apple is still a ride away, and there is no obvious rival. And the market position is still difficult to be surpassed.
Forced replacement?
In addition to the rumors of order cuts, the recent battering of Apple Inc., including through software settings to extend battery life and reduce the performance of older iPhone devices.
Reddit forum users revealed that when third-party organizations tested the old iPhone model, they found that Apple was reducing the performance of the old iPhone. At present, several U.S. users have filed lawsuits against Apple. They believe that Apple has affected the performance of the device without obtaining the consent of the user. It also believes that Apple has deliberately reserved power management functions to persuade people to buy newer devices. equipment.
Apple’s headquarters said in a public statement that lithium batteries will not provide excellent performance at low temperatures, low power, and long-term use, and may cause unexpected shutdowns to protect mobile electronic components. "Last year we released a new feature for the iPhone 6, iPhone 6s and iPhone SE, which is to smoothly transition the iPhone's extremely high performance requirements to avoid unexpected shutdowns. This feature has now also been introduced to the installation of iOS 11.2. The iPhone 7 will support other mobile products in the future."
People in the industry believe that prolonging the life of a mobile phone by limiting performance is not a good solution. Behind this approach, there is indeed the possibility of stimulating consumption. After all, users have a demand for durability and quality.
"Apple's response to the outside world is legally no problem, and there is no intention of slowing down the phone. After the software operating system is upgraded, it is naturally equipped with more powerful hardware devices. And what Apple is facing is From the iPhone4 to iPhonex 8 generation users, the life span of the Apple mobile phone is 36 months or 48 months, and the replacement frequency of other mobile phones is higher, so only Apple mobile phones will appear this phenomenon." The questioning gives a rational analysis.
At the same time, he also believes that the life of mobile phone brands is generally 10 to 15 years, Apple's sales are more and more unsatisfactory, Apple's departure from the altar is also a matter of market law.
However, for hundreds of companies in the supply chain, Apple is still an important support for performance. CSC analysts believe that regardless of market expectations are optimistic, iPhoneX this paragraph relative to the iPhone8 price increase of more than 40%, relative to the iPhone8Plus price increase of 25% of the models, even if sales are flat, will make Apple and its supply chain company's battalion The scale of collection has greatly increased. In addition to mobile phones, numerous growth points will bring more room for imagination, including automotive, AR, wireless charging, and so on, which are the reasons for Apple's supply chain companies.
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